90 percent chance Earth will exceed 2° C warming by 2100

The Earth is very likely to exceed warming of 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change. Researchers from the University of Washington in America estimated that there is only a 5 percent chance that the planet will warm by less than 2 degrees — which many people believe is a "tipping point" that we should avoid by limiting greenhouse gas emissions — and only a 1 percent chance that warming will be kept at 1.5 degrees or below. The research focused on three parameters that underpin the scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions: total world population, gross domestic product per person and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity. Using statistical projections for each of these quantities based on 50 years of past data in countries around the world, the study finds a median value of 3.2° C warming by 2100, and a 90 percent chance that warming this century will fall between 2.0 to 4.9° C. To find out more go to Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely.